Re: Lansville's crisis poll: How serious is this?
by
jkmurph
09/25/2008, 10:04 AM
1. A. My job is managing my portfolio. My goal is 6% to live on, plus the inflation rate to preserve capital.
2. Doesn't apply to me, but my children, who work in the American economy, were taught to max out whatever they can get matching on, plus whatever else it takes to total 20% of their take-home. They're taught to vary their allocations according to the position of the S&P relative to its 6, 10, and 20 month MA's. Basically get out of the market when the 6 closes below the 10, and the S&P closes below its 20 (which was in January this year), and vice versa.
Next year this time will be past the 19 month average for bear markets, so I'm guessing they'll be back in the market, but the last bear was 30 months, so who knows?
3. A
4. B
5. A & B
6. Depends. If the US is still trying to "fight terrorism" by military/social work operations in the muslim world, an attack in America is likely (though hardly 9-11 scale, unless the US police regress to being as incompetent as they were in 2001). The cause of suicide attacks against western targets is invariably perceived foreign occupation of the terrorist's homeland or holy land.
7. Hard to call the bottom on a bear, but 9000 or higher and hopefully ascending (the last one bottomed at 7600, down from 11500)
8. B. Bush will be living in Paraguay to avoid prosecution.
9. A
10. D