>>Dukakis lost the election not because he lost the evangelical vote. He never had it. He lost the election because he was a terrible campaigner who let the Bush campaign define him in the minds of voters over simplistic issues like the death penalty, the pledge, and Willie Horton.<<

I’m not sure the evangelical vote went predictably to republicans in 1988. It wasn’t until 1980 that the evangelical movement came to oppose abortion. Reagan won the evangelical vote over Carter, and again in 1984, but Dukakis didn’t have to concede this group. Bush was equivocal on abortion and Barbara was pro-choice. Dukakis couldn’t win this group, especially after Bush proclaimed Jesus Christ as his personal savior, but he could have tried engaging religious people to limit their influence; Dukakis had refused to talk at Catholic Universities. In contrast, Bush sought the support of Jerry Falwell and Jim Bakker and fought hard for the evangelical vote. Bush defined Dukakis because Dukakis didn’t understand the importance of religion in America or know how to frame issues to lessen the religious outrage.