Re: Survey of AEA shows support for Obama
by
Neuro
09/16/2008, 2:05 PM
Island Muffin:The survey was meaningless and skewed: The “economists” simply followed party line votes: “88 percent of Democratic economists think Democratic Sen. Barack Obama would be best, while 80 percent of Republican economists pick Republican Sen. John McCain.”
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48 percent -- Democrats
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17 percent -- Republicans
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27 percent -- Independents
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3 percent -- Libertarian
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5 percent -- Other or not registered
I mentioned these details in my second post. However, please realize that one's professional opinions will of course influence one's political leanings. Also, note that an essentially equal but insignificantly higher proportion of Republican respondants (10%) support Obama's economic policies than Democratic economists support McCain's (8%).
Island Muffin:In fact, if we give 50% of the independents and those not registered to each candidate, Obama would get 64% of the vote, yet Obama only gets 59%.
Well, you're either being intellectually sloppy or intellectually dishonest. You're being sloppy if you say that, based on any article you can find online, that 64% is the true number given a 50:50 split because we don't know, based on any article yet written, how many Republicans supported Obama's policies versus had no preference. Without that knowledge you cannot arrive at your 64% figure. So that might be intellectually sloppy.
You're being intellectually dishonest if you do have those figures, however, because if you found more detailed information on the survey you would see that Independent economists believe Obama will make more progress on important economic issues than McCain(49% - 37%) and will do better in the long run than McCain (46% - 39%). I don't see how you could have found the details to generate 64% without observing this data.
Note, however, that my original point was not that economists love Obama (though apparently many do) but rather that there is room for legitimate debate.
Island Muffin:Free Trade: The most pertinent economic issue, “On the issue of international trade, Independents favored McCain on this question by 63 percent to 16 percent...”
First, you call this the most pertinent economic issue, but this panel of AEA members ranked international trade only third, behind health care and education, as the issue most likely to impact the economy.
Second, of the 20 issues the economists rated by importance, Obama is seen as likely to perform better than McCain on issues ranked #s 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 16, 17, 18, and 19.
Finally, for our amusement consider the dopaminergic system and the brain. Dopamine is important and cocaine and other drugs of abuse are bad, they'll really screw up the dopaminergic system. If you gave me a survey and said, 'Is cocaine bad for your brain?' I'd say yes. But if you asked me which was worse, taking cocaine or taking 20 gunshot wounds to the head, I'd say the gunshot wounds to the head are very likely worse.
Apparently, even though a lot of the independents supported McCain's international trade policies as opposed to Obama's, a plurality also decided to look at the big picture and support Obama's global economic package.
Island Muffin:I stand firm: 59% are morons!
So to distill your points, you say the survey was skewed and meaningless because everyone followed party lines but we should listen to the Independents who like one tiny part of McCain's economic package.
For my summary, I'll say the results are the results and they favour Obama. Also, even were we to throw out all of those individuals with party affiliations, Obama's economic policies would still be favoured by those independents you cite above. I'll say again- there is legitimate reason to debate economic policies for this election.