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Re: The Big Fall In Oil May Signal A Very Nasty Recession...
by Eljem

I believe that a big part of the run up in oil was caused by the weak US dollar not the other way around. A short-fall between supply and demand of between 5 and 7% does not equate into a 250% increase in oil prices unless you are practicing that all too popular pass time of trying to make something from nothing. Economic masterbation is the best description I can come up with. The Euro, as the only other potential surrogate for the petrodollar has been the 'beneficiary' of the dollars weakness. It is not that the dollar has improved, but the growing realization that the Euro isn't in much better shape and that we are really joined at the hip, that is now begining to dawn on the world financial community. As the dollar increases in value relative to the Euro, oil prices will continue to fall. There is no other currency stable or large enough to handle this staggering river of money. Try to imagine, for a moment the repercussions of OPEC switching to theYuan? The best way to see a reversal of the run-up in petroleum prices is to begin to address the federal defecit and to signal a raise in inerest rates, even if its a tiny increase. The benefit to the US and world economy that results from a decline in the absurd and in my view "evil" oil prices is far greater than the pain of slightly tighter money supply. Talk about moral hazards; Ghandi sumerized it best when asked to give his version of the seven deadly sins. He listed them in order of severity: NO.1 "Wealth without work". The trasnfer of earned wealth, ( that most denegrated and elusive practice in serious decline everywhere along with the middle class), to the petroleum cabal. This kind of scam requires a constant supply of new suckers willing to pay the price. The problem is that the selling price of fossil fuel has gotten so out of balance that there isn't enough real wealth being created to sustain this parasitic industry at current levels. Someone has to actually do something to sustain the massive transfer and accumulation of wealth that Petro Royalty requires.

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