I would note that as against Kevin Kline, Goldblum et al, its certainly not a matter of Costner being a better actor. It is simply that -- during his late 80's/early 90's reign -- he outdistanced all of them as a "bankable superstar."

Even with "Swing Vote," he is being marketed as if he were a "name" worthy of carrying a movie by himself. And he sort of still is. (We'll see on Monday just how big anymore.)

The guy who had a shot at being as big, if not bigger, a star than Kevin Costner, was William Hurt, who had the real lead in "The Big Chill" and toplined movies like "Body Heat" and "Gorky Park" while winning an Oscar for "Kiss of the Spider Lady."

William Hurt turned down Elliott Ness in "The Untouchables," and "The Untouchables" made Kevin Costner a star.

Later, William Hurt turned down the Sam Neill lead in "Jurassic Park," as well. It seems that Mr. Hurt simply wasn't interested in the starmaking machinery. He inexplicably signed on for "Lost in Space," and now he is simply a fine character actor.

Ironically, last year, Kevin Costner starred in the minor thriller "Mr. Brooks," playing a serial killer with an evil in-the-flesh alter ego played by...William Hurt. Neither Costner nor Hurt nor fellow 80's survivor Demi Moore could make a hit out of that one. The times change.

Movie stars are interesting people beyond the tabloids. The one's who are deemed "major" -- and Kevin Costner was such 1987-1995 -- reflect their times in some way.

Handsome leading men are highly sought by Hollywood, but whether they end up as Clint Eastwood, Tom Hanks, Jack Nicholson, Robert DeNiro, or Burt Reynolds, William Hurt, Kevin Costner, Tom Cruise is kind of up to them and their career/life choices. As for Matthew McConaghey: whatever. He's in hits, but he's weightless.

That Costner stumbled and fell so far so fast is indeed likely a reflection of a star ego left unchecked (and wickedly "stoked" by a Best Director Oscar) and left to destroy itself. Hollywood likes to give its more arrogant stars enough rope to hang themselves, sometimes.

P.S. I liked "Waterworld," too. A bit too "Road Warrior"-esuqe, but what a concept.