Re: New Poll: 80% of HRC supporters are voting Obama,8% are not.
by
Arkady
07/18/2008, 9:42 AM
That's a very frightening thought. Given how close recent elections have been, even surrending 2% of the Democratic vote to McCain could be the game changer. Clinton's supporters could represent roughly 1/4 of the likely voters, so 8% of them could represent a 2% swing from Democrat to Republican, which is greater than the swing that was needed to dictate the 2000 and 2004 elections. If you throw in another roughly 3% of the electorate that would have voted for Clinton but instead stays home (12% of 25%), you're essentially talking about a 7-point shift (five down for Obama, two up for McCain). It's not at all rare for less than 7 points to separate candidates in an election. So, even if it were only as bad in other states as in California, we're talking about a phenomenon with a real chance of handing the election to McCain.
I hope Obama isn't so overconfident as to think he can just blow off all those votes and still win. The situation absolutely cries out for naming Clinton the VP. I'm sure that notion doesn't appeal to him, but sometimes a man has to put the interests of his country ahead of his own ego. At this point, I remain cautiously optimistic that Obama will prove wise enough to do so.