July 5, 2008 This column was originally featured on National Journal on July 5, 2008. If you believe the Intrade betting odds, Barack Obama has a 65 percent chance of beating John McCain in November. Similarly, in the Iowa Electronic Markets, Obama has a 64 per-cent chance of winning. Indeed, a look at much of the polling data might lead one to conclude that Obama does in fact have a 2-1 chance of becoming the next president. And yet most trial heats show the presumptive Democratic nominee with an advantage of just 4 to 6 percentage points--a fairly insignificant edge and certainly not one to warrant such favorable odds. Read the complete article