Dear jwschmidt,

I'm sure you are a very decent fellow, and probably quite intelligent. And I'm sorry I didn't make my point bluntly enough to get it across:

I suggest reading through some of the other comments that have been posted on this general topic. Some of us understand that, in the not too distant future, there will be little if any agricultural surplus - or even vaccines (both being a luxury of cheap energy) - and, of course, no inexpensive means for their distribution.

Yes, this means that many of the hungry will starve, and the sick will die of disease. Cheap energy has inflated human populations by about 90%, and the return to the normal carrying capacity of the earth will not be pretty.

If your descendents or mine are among the lucky few to still be here, they will probably be part of an extended family working together, engaged in subsistence farming. The really lucky ones will have a horse, and maybe a cow and some chickens. This need not be a dreary prospect: The Amish live this way today and have very happy, rich and rewarding lives - and their communities will probably endure well beyond most of the major cities on the earth today.

So far as alternative energy sources: Sorry, there is no silver bullet. Petroleum was an accidental, one-shot bonanza, and other fossil fuels, like coal will just be around, polluting the world, for just a tiny bit longer. Yes, back-yard scientists will tinker around with solar, algae, nuclear, etc., but without the excess capital provided by really cheap energy (oil), there will be no way to adequately fund the necessary infrastructure for their establishment or viability.

In this new world, you are correct, there will be little need to travel 100 miles, and, yes, disease and famine will, unfortunately, be a way of life. (I won't dwell here on the other probably catastrophes of social dislocation, war, climate change, etc. -- after all, we must remain positive.)

The post-industrial world will come to resemble the pre-industrial world more and more. Horse and wind-power (think Holland with its windmills and sailing ships) may be better models for a sustainable future than anyone wants to think. Yes, some of what humans have learned about science and engineering will play to our advantage. I believe that gradually mankind will make quite elegant adaptations to the laws of thermodynamics, but the 22nd century is likely to look more like the 15th than the 21st.

Studying the past may be very useful to our future.

Perhaps also we should adopt the attitude of Jacobowski (in Franz Werfel's play, Jacobowski und der Oberst) who, when Hitler's troops were occupying Vienna and that all Jews were being rounded up, was told:

"Die Lage is ernst, aber nicht hoffnungslos!" (The situation is serious, but not hopeless). Jacobowski replied: "Besser gesagt, die Lage is hoffnungslos, aber nicht ernst." (Better said, the situation is hopeless, but not serious.)

It all depends upon how long a view you take.

Happy 4th!