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Re: It's only getting more valuable.
by bmgreene

I'm not saying that sucking our owm oil reserves dry is necessarily the best path, but it would provide an avenue to address the combined issues of a degree of public debt which limits options when it comes to dealing with economic issues (and nobody with any authority seems inclined to consider the more responsible ways of dealing with it) and dependence on foreign energy imports, especially if the remaining reserves would be considered public property.

While oil price growth will doubtless contine as a long term trend, there is currently a premium added by speculation (another "bubble" if you will) which will eventually deflate like any other. In Feb 2000, Cisco stock had increased in price by 700% over the previous 2 years, and many people thought those who were selling their shares were crazy, but I'd bet that anyone who held it for another year wasn't exactly proud of their judgement in doing so. I know there are many many flaws with that analogy, and it's highly unlikely that oil will ever fall all the way back to $20/barrel until petroleum products are no longer widely used, but my central point is just that the assumption that the current trend will continue indefinitely is spurious and frequently disproven throughout history.

Besides, if we never extract it then it doesn't matter if crude goes to $10M/barrel, reserves we're comitted to never tap will never be worth more than the value of the real estate they lie underneath, and will never reduce our dependence on foreign imports which satisfy demand for something which is usable right now.

Also since it's inevitable that we will someday replace most or all fossil fuel use with whatever comes next (as electricity replaced candles and kerosene lamps), then keeping those reserves untapped forever means they will eventually lose much of their current value.

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