You sound very sure about an unwaveringly high level of demand when reducing demand is exactly what businesses are scrambling to do already. Both GM and Ford are making cutbacks in their SUV lines because people aren't interested in buying vehicles that require so much fuel. As new cars on the road tend to be more fuel-efficient and as more people switch to mass transit, oil consumption- and therefore demand for oil- will drop in this country. Five years should be more than enough time for these changes in behavior to lead to larger effects on the market...

So much for nobody thinking that.