Nice post, but I think you missed a major point.

Owners of NFL franchises are guaranteed a degree of profitability regardless of their location. In essence, the NFL, as a league, is run like socialism. Every team benefits from the success of the league as a whole.

The NBA has a soft cap and luxury tax. They also have a rigidly controlled rookie scale for salaries. That creates a financial incentive for owners to minimize salary commitments by pawning off established veterans for draft picks and players still in their rookie scale.

Throw in the fact that outcomes are more predictable in basketball than in any other professional sport, that biases the competitive balance to rich teams, so long as they're well managed (looking at you Dolan!). Fans perceive this imbalance pretty easily. Lower expectations mean lower turnout and general fan indifference.

The inherent unpredictability (due to the short season, large rosters and the way the game is designed) of the NFL gives virtually every fan can hope that their team can pull a title.

Lastly, you can't ignore the racial factor. I don't have any numbers handy, but I'm sure that the NBA is more popular amongst black people and the NFL is more popular amongst white people. The perception, (unfair in my mind), is that basketball is a black man's game.

However little I like Stern, he has done a much better job at expanding the NBA's popularity overseas than the NFL has...