will vote for McCain. We all know that both candidates can't be taken at their word - they won't keep the promises they make. So you have to look at the circumstances of their presidency and their own record.

So here's the thing: McCain would face a very Democratic congress and has a longstanding interest in appearing to be bipartisan. With need and proclivity coinciding, he will work with the Democrats to get things done. I can imagine a balanced budget at the end of the McCain administration, generated by a combination of tax hikes and reduced military spending (McCain has nothing to prove on the military front), for instance. I can imagine real, tangible action on climate change. Certainly McCain will be considerably more competent in international politics than Bush has been.

Obama would have the same Democratic congress to work with, and his general political leanings are already less centrist. I expect his first two years to be like Clinton's: ambitious, partisan, contentious. They will end in deadlock and a big Republican victory in '10. Whether he can recapture Clinton's success after that depends on his ability as a politician. While he's good, he's no Bill Clinton, and I am not sure he could pull that off (Bill also got lucky - a bit).

I think a weak Republican president with bipartisan tendencies cooperating with a strong Democratic congress would lead to more progress towards fiscal responsibility and a competent foreign policy than a all-Democratic setup that sits to the left of mainstream America. I admit that if I really believed that universal affordable healthcare, universal education and real social security reform were in the cards, I guess I would be less sanguine about all this. But I don't see any of these things happening in the US. Not yet. I also don't believe that Obama would withdraw much faster from Iraq than McCain. So pragmatically, McCain seems to be a better choice for Democrats.

Of course, after being the butt of extremist partisan politics for 8 years, with blatant corporatism, vast unfunded tax cuts and a war of choice rammed down their throats, Democrats may not be able to subdue an irrational desire to have their turn and stick it to the other side for a change. Understandable, but irrational.