The present chaos is not as much an oil crisis as it is a dollar crisis. All those dollars per barrel are worth less every day to the sellers. Therefore, they have no incentive to expand production.

I wondered about that. How much is oil price correlated to the USD? I looked at the NYMEX contract and the EURUSD pair from 28 January to 20 May. The daily numbers are positively correlated, yes, but weakly (slightly less than .2). Think of putting a set of irory dice in a shallow dish of milk to influence their outcomes. Point two positive correlation probably gives pretty good betting odds in the long run.