But I question whether the Peak Oil theory by itself explains much. First, because the prediction has been out there for years; the market had plenty of time to adjust to it.

Notice nobody in government has had much to say. That has undercut the theory and supporting arguments. The EIA (DOE) has published much more optimistic price supply forecasts. Until recently, oil markets have been more influenced by those forecasts. Since late last year, oil company execs have stated publically that the industry won't make EIA's higher supply forecasts.

Second, because everybody in the business knows that the end of oil has been predicted many times, but its never happened.

Not exactly. Peak oil doesn't foresee the end of oil, rather, it anticipates serious oil shortages. I first heard The End of Cheap Oil in 1998. Looks like we might have hit the peak or the plateau in late 2005. Plus, the recordkeeps recently changed the oil production benchmark to include "liquids" like condensates and NGLs.

As I said, relatively cheap petroleum probably will never return. There will still be plenty of it available, if you're willing to pay the price, plus all of the extenders and substitutes, and maybe even some next-generation stuff. The world isn't going to run out of energy, but it's going to go through a period of considerable adjustment to a scrambled energy picture. And, yes, many people are going to get hurt; but that's not "the end of the world as we know it."

I predict big changes, notable differences in the next five years. The end of the world that I can see from here will be very good thing.