Why it is a Good Thing (Now) for Super Delegates to Wait
by
maverjoe
05/21/2008, 11:10 AM
I think a month or so ago, I would have said that super delegates should make a choice and end this nomination. I think there is pretty good reason to believe that they will go for Obama if they had waited this long, so why not just pledge now.
However, at this point, I think it is more beneficial for Obama if they wait. Two Reasons:
1) MI/FL: On May 31 Michigan and Florida will be seated in some capacity by the DNC. This will most likely mean half, pushing the magic number to 2116 or thereabouts. I can easily imagine a scenario in which Obama gets 70 in the next week or so, has the (presumtive) nomination, and then has it taken away when the goalposts move. That could be pretty confusing for a lot of people and leave a lot of egg on Obama's face. So it is better to either wait until after the 31st to declare or Obama should try to get enough super delegates to reach this new number, which would be a tall order in the next week and a half.
2) Pushed Out vs. Being Shown the Door: With significant numbers of Hillary supporters claiming that they will not vote for Obama, it is excheedingly important that he cut down on the perception that he is kicking her out of the race. The worst thing that could happen is for her to lose now based on a tide of supers. Instead, just let the rest of the contests play out and then declare on June 5th.
Be patient Obama supporters, we are weeks away from the nomination.