Although it seems completely unlikely by the delegate "count" numbers that Hillary could win the nomination, please consider the fact that politics has little to do with numbers that haven't been counted and more to do with interests that can change the numbers that haven't been counted yet. And there are enough unpledged superdelegates to swing the election in Hillary's favor.

My argument as to why Hillary will win with that reasonable assumption in mind is this:

1. whether or not the delegates from Mich. and FL are counted doesn't matter, the popular vote will be considered from those two states for these reasons: FL is too important to discount and the REAL reason no one else put their name on the ballot in Mich was because the other main candidates knew they would not win... most political "insiders" realize this. I know because I heard this from a democratic candidate's wife (off the record of course, so i wont mention who). So Hillary deserves every vote from Michigan and FL, but not necessarily their delegates because the states did break the rules and consequences need to be followed through with. So what good is carrying the state without the delegates? Well, it gives Clinton the edge to say she is the legitimate popular vote winner. So Clinton gets the plurality of 15,116,613 to Obama's 14,994,998 (statistic from realclearpolitics.com on 5/4/08) add the other states that haven't voted and Clinton is still projected to come out ahead in the plurality of the popular vote.

2. The argument that not counting caucus states misrepresents Obama's electability in the general is a fallacy.

Swing States that are also Caucus states won by Obama: Iowa 25-14 (swings toward Republican). Nevada (by only one delegate and swings toward republican)) 13-12, Colorado 35-20 (and swings toward republican)

The rest of the caucus states are statistically irrelevant (except Texas because they also had a popular vote) because they will most likey go to a republican or democratic candidate no matter who is nominated

Other Obama Swing States: Missouri (swings Rep), Wisconsin (swings Dem)

Swing states won by Hillary by popular vote: New Hampshire (even delegate split with Hillary ahead in the popular vote, swings Dem), Pennsylvania (swings Dem) Arkansas (swings Rep) Florida (swings Rep) Ohio, New Mexico (swings Rep), Michigan (swings Dem)

Now lets count the electoral votes for each candidate for those swing states.

Obama- 42 swing state electoral votes from the general election

Clinton- 100 swing state electoral votes from the general election

As you can see by the data (swing states determained by this list: <link> Clinton is represented by 100 swing state electoral votes- this means she is more electable in the general election than Obama because her supporter base is found in those states that are statistically relevant to winning the election.

3. Clinton carried the "Blue states"

Would be Non-swing democratic states (states that have been voting for the democratic party the last 4 election cycles) electoral votes won by obama -80 (excluding OR)

Would be non swing blue state electoral votes won by Hillary - 155

4. The Media Narrative on the press of Obama is changing for the negative. please read: When press coverage changes for a candidate, their poll numbers change in accordance to the amount of press coverage given to the candidate and whether or not the coverage was overall positive or negative by the mainstream media. For this reason, with the recent change in scrutiny against Obama in the media, we can expect to see a drop in his polls over the next several very important weeks.

It is clear that Hillary Clinton deserves the democratic nomination if she wins the popular vote by her more secure electability alone- not to mention that the economic interests are pointing in her direction.

My prediction is that almost all undecided superdelagates will switch to Hillary after the complete popular vote is won by her in at least a plurality. In fact, I will go as far to say that she will receive a MAJOR endorsement by Gore and/or Jimmy Carter and that will convince enough of the "decided" superdelegates to switch to Hillary.

A vote for Obama in the primaries is probably a vote for McCain. But what do I care? I'm still rooting for Ron Paul.

-jmark