I agree that using the popular vote to predict the distribution of delegates is a crude system, given all the contingencies that cridge details here. But our after-the-fact examination of the discrepancy between the predictions and the actual breakdown suggests that this is actually surprisingly accurate, even on an individual state level. For Clinton, the popular vote predicted the delegate total correctly in 7 of 29 primaries, and was one off in either direction in another 8; in Obama's case, it was exactly right 7 times and one off in 12.

Overall, using the popular vote to predict the delegate vote was off by more than 5 percent in only four primaries for Clinton and three for Obama. For both candidates, the median error is slightly lower than the average.

I'd be happy to share the raw numbers -- Email me at chris.wilson@slate.com.