Beyond demographics: Why Indiana’s culture is not like Pennsylvania or Ohio (or more like Wisconsin) - and why that benefits Obama:

Pollsters often focus on demographics because they are inherently measurable. I submit, however, that the culture of a state or locality is also a powerful contributor to voting preferences, and while less measurable, deserves more attention.

- The Democratic primary in Indiana is an open primary - which attracts independents and new voters that go mostly to BHO. The open primary reflects and encourages a more open culture, and Democrats here are not as dependent on the old, traditional coalitions that gave PA and OH to Clinton.

- Indiana is redder than PA, and, as in other red states, the blue minority gets more excited about a new face -- which gives them hope to get beyond the disappointments of the past. Obama’s campaign has always been an appeal to culture and less to the perceived interests of defined voter segments.

- A big chunk of the IN media market is shared with IL and Chicago, Obama territory, unlike PA being adjacent to New York/New Jersey and its coverage of HRC. Obama’s story is fresh and well-known here, Clinton‘s story is mostly stale, from the ‘90‘s, and her exploits as NY senator barely register. Indiana was never strong Hillary country to begin with, and Bill’s exploits created a negative undertone in middle America generally.

- Indiana is basketball country, and while we will probably see a few clips of BHO sinking some 3-pointers, Hillary would do well not to try to show off in this arena.

- Above all, Indiana is further west, where BHO does better generally. It also shares in the culture of “Midwest-nice” with states like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Abrasive New Yorkers, and their kitchen-sink strategies, do not fare well here. And while the upper Midwest is also “whiter” than PA, the culture is also more tolerant and accepting of minorities - especially if they are as “nice” as Barack.

- Although Hillary grew up the Chicago area, her personality, by choice, is really New York. HRC will undoubtedly try to stress her Illinois roots when campaigning in Indiana, but it will certainly come across as unauthentic to most of us. Barack, on the other hand, could have settled anywhere in the US, but chose Chicago. As a Midwesterner, he is more one of us than Hillary, and we feel it.

There may, of course, also be “cultural” qualities in Indiana that favor Hillary - she was certainly able to exploit several in PA. The difficulty is in identifying and then quantifying them in a way that can be used to predict a final result. The campaign in Indiana is likely to be hard fought and fairly close. I just wish there was a way we could make the cultural appeal more tangible and measurable.