The Trailhead has posed an excellent question. Does the ability of independent voters to participate in primaries benefit Obama or Clinton -- or is it a draw?

In a vacuum, the question is unanswerable, but an analysis in a particular state is possible. In Indiana, for example, the advantage to Obama is clear.

1. Independents skew younger there. As in many Republican-leaning states, being a Democrat is an act of courage in and of itself since primaries rarely produce the eventual winner. Democratic rolls skew older because they tend to be generational party members who vote the same way their parents did. Younger voters with liberal leanings are much more likely to register as independents as are urban dwellers. Both younger and more urban voters have favored Obama in every primary. Independents also have the lowest number in all polls (compared to Democrats or Republicans) who admit that race would effect their vote.
2. Independents who vote in Democratic primaries (i.e., liberal leaning) skew toward an anti-Iraq position even more so than regular Democrats. Obama wins among voters who regard the war as the number one issue. Independents are more upscale economically and are more likely to vote on this issue. This advantage is particularly important in a state that has suffered tremendous economic pain such as Indiana. Democrats, with lower average income levels, have abandoned the war as the main issue in favor of bread and butter issues.
3. Independents tend to be more anti-Washington. One of the reasons voters refuse to identify with parties is that they believe to some degree that "they're all the same." Obama attracts this voter because he appears to be open to a new way of relating to people with different viewpoints.
4. The only states where Obama would not benefit from an open primary, are states in which the overall African-American population is 20% or more. In these contests, Obama is better off (or at least just as happy) limiting the electorate to a voter base that (in the democratic primary) will be 35% or more African American. he doesn't need independents and they are more risky in these states.
5. Independent voters in the south have trended more toward Hillary because of the racially motivated whites within every white voting group in the south (especially older voters). (Independents are white, generally.)
6. Also, in the south, many independents are actually Republican-leaning conservatives who have yet to make a full conversion from the old Democratic party.

In sum, the open primary will help Obama in Indiana.