... The Black Swan, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

If you haven't already read it.

His main premise is that humans are very poor at prediction. We like to make up stories about things after they happen, and in this way make believe that we understand much more than we do.

"My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don’t have the courage to sometimes say: I don’t know...."

His principle observations are about our misunderstanding the nature of 'randomness', we tend to think that the world is 'random' in the same way that games of chance are 'random', he points out that the randomness exhibited by games of chance are absolutely known, and the randomness in the 'real' world on the other hand is absolutely unknown/unknowable chaos.

He has less than flatering things to say about economists by the way.