Hillary must accomplish one of two things: she must either be ahead in the nationwide raw vote counts or ahead in pledged delegates.

She's not going to be ahead in pledged delegates. Michigan and Florida will be seated at the convention. However they apportion it, those delegates won't be enough.

If she doesn't win Pennsylvania by more that 10%, she won't make it ahead in the raw votes, either. W. Virginia and Kentucky are offset by N. Carolina and Oregon. Not even if you include Florida. It is likely that the only way she can claim a lead in the popular vote is to count her votes in Michigan where Obama was not on the ballot. She may not make it even with that.

It is highly possible that we will know the outcome by late May. We will know the outcome before the convention.