(field and odds, past performances)

Riders up! Sound the bugle for the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby. And a dismal one it promises to be! For three reasons. First, it’s been raining all night, with hail and possible tornadoes. Promises to be raining this afternoon as well. Second, the horses aren’t very good this year. So bad that the owners even forgot to give them cool names. Third, and this gets a little technical, some tracks (southern California and Keeneland) have switched to synthetic dirt. This is supposed to be easier on knees and ankles, but it makes comparison difficult. Some horses can’t make the switch between synthetic and real surfaces, and the times on the new stuff are invariably slower, but not predictable as to how much slower. I don’t know why they bothered to radically alter the sport when the world is going to end in 2012 anyway. It makes handicapping about as scientific as betting a dog race based on which one poops right before.

Faced with this daunting prospect, what to do? Attack the favorite, eliminate the no-hopers, find a few plausible longshots, stick em together in exotic bets, and hope for a big score.

First, to the favorite, Big Brown. If Hillary wants us to bet the filly, Barack wants us to bet the brilliant but unseasoned wild card (I would’ve preferred they named the horse Lanky Negro, but no, they went with Big Brown). On the plus side, he has the highest recorded speed figures in the field, consistently. He also has a front-running style that should be favored by a wet track. Even though he’s never raced on a wet track. Because, when I say he’s consistently faster, I mean he’s been fast in two out of his three lifetime races. No horse has won the Derby with fewer than five races under his belt since 1918 (Exterminator). You’re going longer than you’ve ever run, in a twenty horse traffic jam, in front of 150,000 screaming drunks. You can’t train for that; it takes a little getting used to. Also, his early speed may be challenged by a couple of front-runners just to his inside (Recapturetheglory, Cowboy Cal). Certainly the favorite, but he’s hard to get excited about at 3-1.

Now, to the throw-outs. One good idea is not to bet on slow horses. Anak Nakal trails the field in speed, had a lousy last outing, and isn’t bred for distance. Gone. Big Truck (who is naming these horses this year?) also slow, placed a strong eleventh in his last race. See ya. Tale of Ekati and Court Vision have their fans, but we can’t bet on everybody, and our rule is to toss the slow ones. Don’t let the door hit you, fellas.

Four down. Now come the asterisks. Bob Black Jack, Monba and Adriano have slow times, but have never run on real dirt. The synthetic stuff slows the times. Either they could explode on real dirt or absolutely hate it. Another feature of the synthetic stuff is that it favors closers over front-runners. Bob Black Jack should therefore improve on real dirt. However, he is a need-to-lead speedball, and he’ll have to fight for the lead here. Also, he doesn’t have a distance pedigree. I’m saving Monba and Adriano to clunk up for third or so, due to their superior breeding. Cowboy Cal has run on dirt, and didn’t impress. He also needs the lead and won’t get it.

Six down. Next we look to sharpening form. You don’t have to have won your last race, but if you didn’t make a strong showing, you need an excuse. Visionaire came in tenth at Keeneland. That was the dreaded synthetic dirt, but he was not exactly a superstar before that. Out. Denis of Cork came in fifth in the Illinois Derby against middling competition. I’m tossing him with some regret, because he has one of the few good names. With Pyro we have a dilemma. Brilliant as a two-year old, he became pretty good at three. Lost a step, in other words, as often happens. He had a lousy run on the fake dirt at Keeneland. Generally speaking, I’m not fond of precocious juveniles making it in the classics. Out he goes.

Nine down. I’m also tossing Smooth Air because he was sick this week. Which means we have now eliminated half of the field. Whew. Now to spot a live longshot and construct a bet.

She's a Mudder.

Jack

I assume you already knew THIS, but I didn't.

I find that amazing.

Thanks Urq.I'll pick GayEgo to show..haaa...

Of our ten survivors, let us examine who can actually win, and who might sneak into the money. The potential winners:

Big Brown. As discussed previously. He doesn’t offer any value in the win pool, but we’d be foolish to ignore him in constructing a wager.

Gayego. Puts up strong numbers consistently, and held on gamely to win a strong Arkansas Derby. Good early speed, but prefers to stalk just behind the pace, which strikes me as how this one will play out. Never run in the slop, though.

Z Fortune. Got a wide trip in the Arkansas Derby to almost catch Gayego. Showed tremendous improvement in that race over his previous form. That happens sometimes with developing three-year olds. Could be a fluke, or could signal that he’s reached a new level.

Recapturetheglory. Wired a slow-paced Illinois Derby. But he is fast, and if some of the speedballs fail to fire or get caught in traffic, he could jump out to an early lead in the slop and steal it. That’s a lot of ifs, but at big odds, why not invest in a modest win bet? Under no circumstances bet him for second or third, however. Win or bust with this guy.

Eight Belles. The girl. Consistently strong, and she’s a big, strapping girl, so she may be able to handle the rough and tumble of a Derby cavalry charge. Normally, one would think running against the boys would be a big step up in competition, but this isn’t a strong crop, so I give her a chance. Sentimentalists always overbet the filly, though, so she might not offer much value.

Colonel John. California’s finest. Since there aren’t any naval names, we’ll make this the McCain horse. He’s only ever run on fake dirt, and so is something of a wild card. He could either love or hate the real dirt.

Cool Coal Man. My Bud longshot. Had a terrible outing on that accursed fake dirt at Keeneland. Up until then, he was progressing nicely, however. Was it just the track, or is something wrong with him? At a big price, he's worth a sporting flutter.

They won't win, but you can still make money with them:

Z Humor. Man, these names are pissing me off. Solid, respectable stalker. The reason for including him here is breeding. He should improve with distance, and pass some fading speedsters in the stretch.

Monba and Adriano. These are basically the same horse that somehow managed to get entered twice. Plodding closers with long-distance pedigrees. Unless the pace completely collapses up front (ala Giacomo), I wouldn’t expect either one to win, but they could clunk up for third at a big price.

So, now to do a little calculus, based on the latest odds.

Excellent post, Urq. Too bad it's raining, but everyone knows the best thing about the Derby are the hats anyway. I'm going to dig out mine from two years ago and wear it whilst I do the week's laundry.

{I don't know. Kind of like Big Brown, myself}

Latest Estimated Odds

Big Brown 3-1

Colonel John 9-2

Z Fortune 15-1

Eight Bells 20-1?

Gayego 21-1

Cool Coal Man 40-1

Recapturetheglory 50-1

Adriano 25-1

Monba 28-1

Z Humor 65-1

I’m getting conflicting data on Eight Bells. Some have her as low as 8-1 on the betting so far. I ain’t betting no filly at 8-1.

Our longshot win prospects are looking good. A small win bet on Cool Coal Man and Recapturetheglory is definitely warranted. $5 each.

Gayego looks like a bargain, probably due to the name. The price is about right on Z Fortune. Big Brown, Colonel John and Eight Bells don’t offer much value (if my theory on Eight Bells is correct). We may want $10 each on our solid value win prospects.

The exacta. Here’s where we make our money. Taking a stand against the favorite, we can put Colonel John, Z Fortune, Gayego, Cool Coal Man and Recapturetheglory on top. In the second slot, we put all of the above (except Recapturetheglory, win or bust, remember), adding Eight Bells and Big Brown. Alternately, you could get adventurous and substitute Z Humor for one of them. This comes to $30 total.

The trifecta. Swing for the fences. Top slot: Z Fortune, Gayego. Second slot: the above, plus Big Brown, Colonel John, Eight Bells, Cool Coal Man. Third slot: the above, plus our clunkers Monba and Adriano. This comes to $60.

All of which comes to $120. Hmm. You could reduce that by really taking a stand against the favorite in the exotic bets. Or you could just say, hell, it’s the Derby, and ignore the cap.

They are getting more fragile. That's part of the reason for the synthetic dirt. All thoroughbred horses are in fact descended from only three original stallions: the Darley Arabian, the Godolphin Arabian and the Byerly Turk. They were active during the reign of Charles II. Who got his nickname of Old Rowley from his prize stud. For obvious reasons.

make the tag "Hot Southern Cousin Lust" such a success. I'm fair bursting with pride.

But we can't let up now. It looks kind of puny next to that big, bold, steroid-fueled jeqal.

as a horseman I enjoyed it all very much.

Thank you.

MasterJay:

as a horseman I enjoyed it all very much.

Thank you.

Masterjay is not kidding when he says,"He is a Horseman.!"

A very good one!

Go for Recapturedglory to come from behind.

(I saw Hillary signing autographs while wearing her Derby Chapeau)

She paid the highest price.

Elj

Man, what a win. You have to make a decision on favorites. My decision was "prove it", and I'll be damned if he didn't do it. Got a good trip, but nobody really threatened him. If he can stay healthy with those iffy hooves, he's in a shot at the elusive #12.