Most Likely but Not Certain
by
TheBell
04/01/2008, 3:05 PM #
Hi, LaurieAnnM. You are quite right and the math does NOT show it is impossible for Clinton to win. However, it will require her to win a lot of the remaining primaries with much larger margins than she has done to date and/or to win a very substantial majority of the uncomitted superdelegates.
The problem with that is neither candidate has shown the ability to "blow away" the other so far in this campaign, whether they have momentum or otherwise. The most likely scenario is that they will more or less split the remaining pledged and superdelegates between them, which favors Obama.
"Most likely" is not the same thing as a certainty, however. This is just a very close race that is very evenly split. For Dems not to be hurt by the outcome in the fall, two things will have to happen. First, the losing candidate, whoever it is, must be allowed to bow out with as much dignity and grace as possible. Second, the Florida and Michigan delegations must be seated at the convention and if no way is found to assign delegates based on the results of their January primaries or re-votes, then every courtesy and effort must be made to make them feel part of the process.
The rest is just partisan posturing.