Unemployment figures are based on who out of work but is actively looking for a job, so how on earth does the Govn't know who has given up on a job search? Many people just give up looking for work when they feel it is hopeless, yet they are still umemployed. How are they counted? If you have stopped looking for a job, then you are no longer counted as unemployed. Are you no longer considered unemployed when your unemployment benefits run out and you still have no job? This leads me to think the true umemployment figure is higher than 10%. Does anyone have any insight into this?

During the last recession under Bush it was really 10% and now it is 17%.

The attitude of Bush was much better than the attitude of Obama during the recession. Bush was constantly concerned about Americans out of work. Obama is concerned about getting more taxation to support his socialism via health insurance reform (we call it health taxes) and cap and trade (we call it cap and tax).

You cannot have socialism without more taxation and Obama is focused on taxation not unemployment. Hey, his guys,---teachers, public and state employees are still employed and laughing their asses off at the private sector. Soon we all will be working for the gov singing the Russian national anthem.

There is a formula they use but right now the rate is actually around 17.5%. As for Obama, I don't think anyone is going to stop this right now. Most expect the rate will go to 11% (19% for all) next year before we see any turnaround.

If the rest of the stimulus money works as well as the first half, we may see higher numbers.

If the rest of the stimulus money works as well as the first half, we may see higher numbers

And your reasoning on this is?

Most expect the rate will go to 11% (19% for all) next year before we see any turnaround

Hmm. We are at 10.2%. And there are roughly 155,000,0000 in the labor force. So you are saying that we are going to see job losses of another 1.2 MILLION before the economy turns around.

Now the month to month unemployment numbers Calculator What we see is that from Jan 2008 (GWB's Last and first unemployment decrease in over a year) is a steady increase of unemployment at starting with a .1%, then .5% then climging to a steady state .4% per month

this PEAKS at .5% per/month growth in the GOP's last month of WH control.

Then it starts a steady downwards march until these last numbers.

so explain again why we are going to see unemployment turn back up?

Other than your idelological desires?

degs:

Maybe he is agreeing with you on increases in U3 and U6, which hs is obviously citing? I could be wrong; but, I believe he is forecasting increases in U3 and U6.

Seems like the birth/death calculation miscalculated leading to an overstatement of ~800,00 in employment so far this year for Payroll data. The number will be adjusted in 2010, which should be interesting. <link>