But the AMPTP will have to cave, and quickly.

SAG members stand to lose nothing from going on strike, outside of a month or so of work. On the other hand, every other union, including the AMPTP, stands to lose more than they can afford. This will cause everyone in Hollywood to clamor for the AMPTP to bend on more of SAG's demands than it wants to. The WGA specifically will have no choice but to apply pressure to the AMPTP, as will the DGA.

The AMPTP, and moreover, ALL of Hollywood, took major financial losses from the WGA strike that they have not yet recovered from. They simply cannot afford to drag this out as long as they did previously. Summer television production has to continue if a somewhat normal fall season is to occur. SAG minimum scale pay is unaffected by advertiser revenue, per their Minimum Basic Agreement. Therefore, SAG members stand to lose very little, and WILL approve of a strike.

Simply put, the AMPTP doesn't have a financial leg to stand on. SAG knows it has to actually strike in order to scare the industry into bending on more of its demands, which will not affect its members' bottom line. And the AMPTP knows it can't stand up to them.

It's gamesmanship on a multi-billion dollar scale, and the blame rests solely on the AMTPT's short-sighted deals with the DGA and WGA. Had the AMPTP demanded a deal with SAG at the time they struck their other deals, they would have avoided this whole mess.

And AFTRA members wouldn't have to be thrown under the bus by their "big sis." They're the ones being demonized here, and it's the result of the AMPTP's short-sightedness, in combination with SAG's distinct brand of opportunism.

I would think that the members of SAG who aren't Jack Nicholson might be a little more skittish about voting for a strike. A good many of SAG's members are struggling actors who might not be able to endure a strike in a bad economy. I'm not saying they should or shouldn't go on strike; but it seems to me that the combination of the writer's strike and rough economic times can't help but be a huge factor. I say this realizing that part of being in a union involves not caving when times are tough.

I wouldn't refute anything that you said. But I will highlight that the struggling economy of Hollywood is what will give SAG the upper hand. Skittish though they might be, since a vast majority are not above-the-line stars, they stand only to benefit from a strike that will increase their MBA scale rate and provide for VOD royalties.

They know Hollywood can't afford another strike, and it is in the spirit of opportunism that they will authorize the move. The strike will be very short-lived, because of the absolute need for a fall season. But only by doing what nobody wants will they be able to apply pressure to the AMPTP, and they won't even to apply it themselves. Studios, networks, and the other guilds will do it for them.

The economic hardship of losing a month's work will be FAR outweighed by the promise of VOD royalties and partial clip ownership. SAG actors are well aware that they are in position to get the best deal the AMPTP can offer, but only by threatening entertainment doomsday.

The show must go on, after all, and the AMPTP screwed up bigtime by giving SAG all the control (by not making their deal along with the DGA and WGA's). Especially since television is now dominated not by AFTRA talent, but by the star power of SAG.

The only possibility of avoiding a strike will be the piecemeal negotiation of networks and studios with SAG itself, if the AMPTP digs its heels in. Much in the same way as the studios and networks circumvented the producers earlier, which forced the DGA and WGA deals, they will be only more eager to do so in this case for the sake of their jobs.

Either way you look at it, SAG members only lose the strike time's work. The AMPTP stands to lose their negotiating power altogether for decades to come if the nets and studios have to step in again.

Good points all around. Whatever happens, I'm ultimately pulling for the actors. I don't think people appreciate what a difficult job it really is.