If he can't come within 30 points of a Democratic opponent in West Virginia, how does he win when the Republicans get to vote? Same will happen in Kentucky. She'd get the black vote in North Carolina and similar states overwhelmingly as a candidate against a Republican, just like her husband and every other Democratic nominee has. The question is who gets the swing white "Reagan democrats" in Appalachian spine states and Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania etc. She'd get them. He won't. Introduce yourself to President McCain.

Wrong.

1. First of all, many of you seem to be doing what military planners at the Pentagon often do: plan for the previous war. The swing states last time are not likely to be the same this time. Specifically, Obama will win in places like Virginia, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa. As for Ohio, Clinton's margin there was less than 1.5%, after weeks of bad publicity for Obama.

2. There is not really much logical connection between how a candidate performs in a primary against another Democrat with how he would perform in a general election against a Republican. Different electorate and different opponent. Bush got destroyed in New Hampshire in 2000, with only 30% of the vote, his lowest of the entire election. But New Hampshire was the only northeastern state he won in the fall.

3. You're making the mistake of assuming what's true now will be true in November. Bill Clinton was actually running third in June 1992, not only behind GHWB but Ross Perot as well. He went into the Democratic convention something like 15 points behind Bush. Five months is forever in politics.

4. You're being unduly pessimistic about Democratic prospects in general. Polls reflect what is going on right now. Even with the party tearing itself in two, polls show Obama and McCain about even.

5. You are forgetting that McCain is actually a pretty weak candidate. In some sense McCain and Obama are similar -- both appeal to independants and across party lines, but are distrusted by certain elements of their parties' bases. The big different is that McCain represents a third term for the least popular president in modern history. He isn't going to get one.

6. You forget that all the energy in this campaign is around Obama. The crowds at Obama rallies are 2,3,5,10 times the size of McCain's or Clintons. Funds pour in for Obama faster than he can spend them, while McCain will be on public assistance all fall.

It isn't even going to be close.

funds pour in for obama ! So where do you think this Black muslim negro is getting all that money from ?" I mean really "! If he is "all that" ! Is he having that hard of a time convincing people that he's a somebody,not a nobody ?? can you say "harpo" productions ? How about NAACP??

maroci:

Wrong.

1. First of all, many of you seem to be doing what military planners at the Pentagon often do:

You seem to think you can read other ppls' minds. Which is worse?

plan for the previous war. The swing states last time are not likely to be the same this time. Specifically, Obama will win in places like Virginia, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa. As for Ohio, Clinton's margin there was less than 1.5%, after weeks of bad publicity for Obama.

The polls say otherwise: <link>

He'll lose WV. He'll probably lose MO. He'll probably lose VA, FL, MI, and WI but it will be close. He'll probably win IA and CO but it will be close. He'll probably win PA. He'll probably lose to McCain. The projection is Obama, 237 to McCain, 290.

Clinton will also probably lose MO, IA, and WI but it will be close. She'll probably lose VA. She'll lose CO. She'll probably win FL and WV. MI is a toss-up. She'll probably beat McCain. The projection is Clinton 279, McCain 242. <link>

3. You're making the mistake of assuming what's true now will be true in November.

That's a good point but you also seem to be assuming that in 1 above.

4. You're being unduly pessimistic about Democratic prospects in general. Polls reflect what is going on right now. Even with the party tearing itself in two, polls show Obama and McCain about even.

But national polls are meaningless in a presidential election, no matter when they're taken. Electoral votes are what matters.

5. You are forgetting that McCain is actually a pretty weak candidate. In some sense McCain and Obama are similar -- both appeal to independants and across party lines, but are distrusted by certain elements of their parties' bases. The big different is that McCain represents a third term for the least popular president in modern history. He isn't going to get one.

Then why is Obama losing to McCain when you look at the map for the general election matchup and electoral votes? The voters have seen both candidates. If McCain is that weak, should Obama at least be ahead of him by now?