Is this boondoggle necessary?
by
revrick
05/09/2008, 8:12 PM #
Boondoggles are, almost by definition, unnecessary, aren't they? But what if this is the case of a necessary boondoggle, a seemingly foolish undertaking that still makes some sense?
We're used to hearing that the free markets are rational and provide the best allocation of resources, but that viewpoint often overlooks the lavish and foolish ways that government initiatives can make good things happen.
- The Erie Canal
- Land grants to the transcontinental railroads
- The Interstate Highway system
- Airports and air traffic control
- TVA
There was no way of knowing if these things would pan out as hoped. And there was certainly no way that free market investors would finance these things. The risks were too high and market signals, if any, were far too slow.
With oil prices setting new highs on a daily basis (up 8% this week alone) the market is signaling a critical supply squeeze. But is it enough of a signal to avert serious problems ahead?
As China, India, and other developing economies continue their furious rates of growth, we can expect competition for scarce supplies to grow increasingly fierce. The 2005 "Hirsch Report" — a report by SAIC, Inc., for the Department of Energy — found that to mitigate the full impacts of peak oil, the U.S. would have to begin serious planning and start transitioning away from petroleum 20 years before the peak. According to this report, if a peak happens within the next 10 years, we will suffer extreme disruptions to our economy because we have not, as a nation, begun to seriously plan for the transition.ii
And how are the free markets responding to these furious price signals?
Generally speaking, they’re backpedaling just as furiously as they seek to repair the damage to their balance sheets caused by the ongoing credit crisis. Just today, for instance, Citi offered up for sale some 20% of its assets (about $500 billion worth)! Did they do so because they were bored with managing this stuff or is it because they need to shore up their balance sheet even more, since more losses loom on the horizon? There are limits to how much preferred stock you can offer. If Citi is any indication, the private financial market still has a lot of pain to endure. Which means they will have little capital to lend.
We need serious money being thrown at the growing energy crunch. Only government has the wherewithal to do it now. We need the government to become boondoggle central in the effort to transition to a post-oil future. Because when the “No gas today” signs crop up at service stations and the lights flicker out for hours and days at a time, you can be sure that folks won’t bitch about all the money government wasted on alternative energy boondoggles. No, they’ll wail and gnash their teeth because government didn’t.