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Kaus: wrong, wrong, wrong
by Uncle Squinky

So as it turns out, you were wrong: BHO had a 14 point NC victory.

As for your theory that, assuming a miraculous/fishy victory in Indiana, you're right, but for the wrong reason. It's doubtful that he'll eek out a victory anyway, so there is no need for a recount, but what would be wrong to call for one if the results left less than a statistical margin of error. Kos has a better reason: this way HRC won't bow out before W. Virginia, which Obama will fare poorly in; it would be bad form for the pre-sumptive nominee to have a poor showing there.

I guess your job description has you writing stuff as soon as it comes into your head, but you would certainly improve your creds if you were not to make so many hair-brained, on the fly, speculations, but rather did better pre- and post-primary analysis and spent less effort on mid-election-night flatus.

Re: Kaus: wrong, wrong, wrong
by maroci

Actually he's 100% correct. It doesn't make a fucking bit of difference who won Indiana. In fact, it's not really possible to "win Indiana," in a proportional delegate allocation situation. Whether you get 49% or 51% of the vote is meaningless -- it's a couple delegates.

The entire question of who won Indiana is what qualifies as "election night flatus." The fact is, the people of Indiana were about equally split. That's really all the information that's needed. More importantly, Clinton's last chance to narrow the delegate gap or change the campaign narrative in any meaningful way came and went last night.

By the way, the expression is "hare-brained," not "hair-brained." As in dumb as a rabbit. When you're tossing around insults that question other people's intellect it's bad form to show your own ignorance. Just a little tip for you.

Oh, and nobody gives a fuck about West Virginia. Nobody. It's a tiny state without indoor plumbing. It has a whopping 14 pledged delegates. I'm sure CNN will produce some "election night flatus" about it, which will dissipate about an hour and a half after the polls close. All that's left at this point is electoral scraps. Clinton will win a few and Obama will win a few, and nobody cares and nothing will change.

Barring Obama being caught in bed with the proverbial dead woman or live boy in the next month or so, he is the nominee, plain and simple. There is no reason to bring up Chicagoland politics.

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