-
sponsorship
Will Greg Packer Outlast the MSM? Five years after being exposed (by Ann Coulter) as "the entire media's designated 'man on the street' for all articles ever written" and banned by the AP, Greg Packer's triumph over the MSM is complete: Patterico documents his Friday humiliation of the New York Times. ... He will dance on their graves, and maybe give a celebratory quote to Mayhill Fowler. ... 2:07 P.M.
___________________________
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Went to a Halloween party dressed as The Bradley Effect. The elemental conceptual simplicity of my costume somehow failed to terrify, even in a Dem heavy Hollywood crowd. ... This may be the first election where average Web-surfing, procrastinating liberal comedy writers know more about the last Insider Advantage poll in Pennsylvania than Howard Fineman does.... Unfortunately, they thought the photo of George Deukmejian on my costume** was Robert Rubin.
**--Pinned to the red half of the costume under a blue flap that--easier to show than tell--flopped over to obscure a photo of long-serving L.A. Mayor Tom Bradley, whom they mistook for an Asian man. They had been drinking. ...[Had you worn the White Liberal Guilt Effect costume, I would have been impressed.--emailer DM It was at the cleaners.]
2:46 P.M.
____________________________
Friday, October 31, 2008
The five important people in American politics whom Mark Halperin most wants to suck up to right now -- who aren't running for president ... :2:15 P.M.
___________________________.
Psst, Dittoheads: Obama has come out against reimposing the Fairness Doctrine. [Through an aide, in an email--ed. Sure. But is is better to discount and downplay the anti-Fairness pledge on those grounds, or to play it up and lock Obama in? Depends whether you want to help McCain or free speech.] 11:54 A.M.
___________________________
A year is an eternity in politics ... but it will seem like three months: NBC's First Read:
[T]oday just happens to be the one-year anniversary of the MSNBC debate in Philadelphia that tripped up Hillary Clinton on the question of drivers’ licenses for illegal immigrants. It seems longer than a year, right?
Actually, it doesn't. It seems like it happened last month. I can't explain it--you'd think one implication of the Feiler Faster Thesis, much discussed in this space, is that any given period of time would seem longer because it's now typically more jampacked with twists and turns (as the campaign has, in fact, been). But all the FFT says is that we comfortably process information more quickly, which allows for the twists and turns.** It doesn't necessarily say anything about how those twists and turns will be remembered. ...
** High school poetry bonus: See A. Marvell: "Thus, though we cannot make our sun/Stand still, yet we will make him run." Would that make time seem longer, looking back? I don't think so, though the issue isn't directly addressed. ... 1:34 A.M.
___________________________
Thursday, October 30, 2008
The See-Saw Cuts Both Ways: Republicans have been gaining in the "generic" Congressional ballot, according to The Hill.
Republicans have cut the Democratic advantage in the generic ballot question in half over the past week, according to a new GW-Battleground poll. Democrats now lead by four points, their slimmest lead in more than three years. A week ago, according to the George Washington University pool, their advantage was eight points. [E.A.]
Is this the fabled See-Saw Effect, where the more Obama goes up the more Dem Congressional candidates go down? ... As someone rooting for an Obama victory coupled with a small Dem majority in Congress, I've worried that in all the last minute confusion the See wouldn't know which way to Saw, given the countervailing possibility that ticket-splitting voters would side with McCain and compensate by voting for Dems in downballot Senate and House races. ... But if the MSM Final Push to Victory. among other factors, really does help produce a big Obama closing surge, that could (perversely!) tip the ticket-splitters' lever against Franken, Martin, etc., no? ... Update: TalkLeft points out that the very same Battleground poll does not show Obama surging, but rather has him only three points ahead of McCain. I knew that! But the ticket splitting impulse could be rising, even if Obama's lead remains constant, as the possibility of his winning looms larger in voters' minds. (The poll in question didn't show McCain surging either--he was three points behind last week as well as this week.) ... P.S.: I'm not predicting! Just speculating on possible last-minute dynamics. Obama and the downballot Dems won't necessarily rise or fall in tandem. ... 7:17 P.M.
___________________________
Pushke Comes to Shove: Regarding Rashid Khalidi, here is what a friend of mine--a Jewish Democrat involved in "mainstream Jewish ... peace work"--wrote me:
its always about rashid..who has been a
buddy of mine for 20 years... and is from an old palestinian
family and is pro palestinian....but who has also worked with israelis
and jews (he has a blue and white pushke in his office!)
Even Jeffrey "
Aflatoxin" Goldberg
seems to agree about Khalidi. ...
Explainer: Why of course I know what a "pushke" is! Why would you doubt that? It's "the little blue boxes everybody's grandmother had on their counter to raise money for planting trees in Israel."
[Is this the start of your Pro-Obama Lockdown?--ed That's days away! ]
Update--Note to hawkish Obama supporters: Please stop defending Khalidi! The more you defend him, the more he starts to actually look worrisome. It's the to-be-sure grafs that do the damage. See Goldberg's
second defense ("his sympathies frequently cause him to distort Middle East history") and the
WaPo editorial page ("We don't agree with a lot of what Mr. Khalidi has had to say about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict over the years. ... He said that the two-state solution favored by the Bush administration (and Mr. Obama) was "deeply flawed" ... a smart, if militant, advocate for the Palestinians.") ....
___________________________
-
sponsorship
No Ring. On to the DNA test! ... 1:22 P.M.
___________________________
Everybody's Pitching In (7)! Barbra Streisand is doing her part [in a non-profit, non-endorsement way of course] ... 1:15 P.M.
___________________________
Are we sure that when Obama was talking about judge-led "redistributive change" that "the real context" for his remarks was the inherently limited debate over Charles Reich's "New Property"--i.e. whether government benefits (like welfare) could be denied without various procedural safeguards like as hearings--as Emily Bazelon argues? Didn't Harvard Law Prof. Frank Michelman famously attempt to import into the Constitution John Rawls' Theory of Justice--in order to require the provision, not just of procedural rights, but of actual welfare benefits? My memory might be off, but I think he did! Obama was certainly talking broadly enough to include this ambitious, unsuccessful liberal effort:
[T]he supreme court never ventured into the issues of redistribution of wealth and sort of basic issues of political and economic justice in this society and to that extent as radical as people try to characterize the warren court it wasnt that radical ... it didnt break free from the essential constraints that were placed by the founding fathers in the constituion at least as it has been interpreted and the warren court interpreted it generally in the same way that the constitution is a document of negative liberties
Since Obama is rejecting the idea of pursuing "redistributive change" through the courts, what difference does it make whether this change was narrow and procedural (Reich) or dramatic and substantive (Michelman)? Answer: It matters because Bazelon's version minimizes the extent to which liberal legal activists actually wanted to redistribute wealth through the courts--and might one day again if they think they can get away with it. That possibility seems very remote, I agree. But as David Bernstein argues, it can't be completely discounted despite Obama's criticism of judge-led redistribution, because Obama's criticism was largely pragmatic, and the pragmatic equation could change:
There are two basic possibilities. One is that Obama might believe that appointing far left Justices to the Court would be unlikely to accomplish much in the long-term, and could ultimately harm the progressive agenda, and his own presidency, by reviving "unelected judges imposing their will on the American people" as a Republican campaign theme. The other possibility is that Obama, intoxicated by victory, and having the very healthy ego that all successful politicians have, will decide that the election of a very liberal African-American president, along with large Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, signals that the social and political winds have shifted sufficiently that the Supreme Court could successfully launch an activist liberal agenda, and he will nominate justices accordingly. But there is nothing in either Obama's radio remarks, his voting record in the Senate, or his public statements on judges to suggest that he objects in principle to the equalitarian "living Constitution" of Brennan, Warren, et al., and there is much to the contrary. [E.A.]
3:36 A.M.
___________________________.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Obama Infomercial: Effective! (And I hate Real People). ... Made Obama seem normal. .... Huge gap between what he says he'll do ("restore fairness") and his actual initiatives (tax credits). ... Was that Joe Biden or his SNL caricature saying "Whoa!"? .... 5:40 P.M.
___________________________
Who Let Rachael Larimore in? Slate's quadrennial exercise proving that just because you're open about it doesn't mean it's not embarrassing is up. Slate is voting 55-1 for Obama over McCain, with one additional vote for Bob Barr. With those numbers, it's getting hard to agree with founder Michael Kinsley:
No doubt it is true that most journalists vote Democratic, just as most business executives (including most media owners) vote Republican, though neither tendency is as pronounced as their respective critics believe.
Not "as pronounced" as our "critics believe"? You mean Sarah Palin thought it would be 56-1? How much more pronounced could it get? ...
Memo to Don Graham: As long as we're going with the O by a 55-1 margin, why not drop the now-ludicrous MSM-style pretense of non-partisanship and reap the financial rewards of partisanship that available on the Web-- like, say, the Huffington Post? ... P.S.: Slate itself is a bad name, in this respect, since it implies a blankness, a void of strong preferences that (fortunately) isn't there. But I guess it's too late to change that. ... 4:37 P.M.
___________________________
Shocked, Shocked for Barack! The cheapest out if your'e a previously McCain-friendly pundit who wants to endorse Obama is to say you like McCain but can't vote for him because you're revolted by his campaign. It's an out elaborately developed by Joe Klein at Time, and it's an out Anne Applebaum takes in Tuesday's WaPo. Applebaum claims she's not reacting against McCain's "campaign" but rather to "institutional" deterioration in his "increasingly anti-intellectual, no longer even recognizably conservative" party. But all the examples she cites come from his campaign (Palin) or campaigning that's not even his (Sean Hannity's anti-Obama telecasts).. ...
The problem with the "I'm repulsed" argument is that while it's eminently respectable it's unserious. The campaign will be over soon. There is no reason to think McCain has actually changed what he wants to do on, say, immigration. Applebaum doesn't offer even a speculative argument as to why, with the election safely behind him, President McCain would have to truckle to his party's anti-amnesty contingent. That's because he wouldn't. He'd be much more likely to make immigration the basis for his first and perhaps only foray into bipartisanship--in effect, truckling to the pro-legalization forces. Nor has McCain "spent the past four months running away" from his longstanding immigration position. He's spent the past two months reasserting it.
I think Applebaum knows this. She's not a fool. If she really thinks that McCain's pre-campaign immigration policies--or his budget policies, or his torture policies--are right for the country, then she should be for McCain. Even if he's trying to win by running anti-Ayers ads. Even if his supporters "repulse" her. It's hard to believe that this repulsion isn't a convenient cover for some unstated, perhaps unconscious, pro-Obama imperative (or maybe simply for the imperative to come to a decision). ... 2:54 A.M.
___________________________
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
If you're looking for evidence of a "Bradley"-like effect--in which preelection polls can be wildly off--one place to look is the polling on Ward Connerly's Civil Rights Initiative in Michigan. According to Connerly (in answer to an email query)
Some polls had us losing by 10 points the weekend before the election. We won by 16.
Results here. ... It seems clear, in that case at least, voters told pollsters the respectable PC answer they thought pollsters wanted to hear. ... Barack Obama was one of those campaigning (in radio spots) for the respectable PC side that lost. ... P.S.--Is McCain Yorty? Sherry Bebitch Jeffe argues (as have others) that there was no Bradley effect in Tom Bradley's 1982 gubernatorial race--the alleged ur-example. In Bradley's 1969 mayoral race against Sam Yorty, on the other hand .... 5:07 P.M.
___________________________.
-
sponsorship
"Redistributive Change"--Bernstein, not Sunstein: David Bernstein's take on that Obama "redistributive change" radio interivew seems sound. As Obama's defenders note, he was opposing using the courts to achieve RC, though perhaps as a practical matter and not as a matter of principle. But Obama cadre Cass Sunstein didn't do his reputation any good if he really pretended Obama only meant (in Ben Smith's summary) "narrower forms of redistribution -- education, legal filing fees, legal representation, and other issues." Obama was clearly talking more generally--certainly when he seemed to endorse redistribution through political action. Anyway, if one of the "narrower forms of redistribution" was a constitutional right to "welfare" or a minimum income, how much broader do you have to get to violate the venerable and politically central American consensus that income should only come with work? ...
Still, as Bernstein notes, we knew Obama believed in "redistributive change." The question is always what that means. Traditionally Democratic pols leave it alarmingly vague, with no identifiable stopping place at which enough redistribution is enough. Obama is no exception. But this radio interview makes him seem both smarter and a bit less paleoliberal than most voters probably think he is.
If this is the best they've got on him ... 1:59 A.M.
___________________________
I never met Dean Barnett. I don't know what he looked like, never knew what he did for a living or, until today, when he died from cystic fibrosis, how old he was. But as soon as I stumbled onto his Soxblog a few years ago I knew this was a clear-headed, humane, no-BS person--the sort of person the Internet is supposed to discover and promote, which it did. Barnett was a man of the right. Here is the gracious tribute he posted when Steve Gilliard, a caustic Kos blogger whom he admired, died-- also at 41.
Mark Steyn told us to pray. It didn't work. Fuck. 12:15 A.M. .
Monday, October 27, 2008
Everybody's Pitching In (6)! Chris Martin has done his part! ...9:59 P.M.
___________________________
"Realignment" ain't what it used to be: Just when the Democrats are about to achieve permanent political dominance, political analysts go and discover that permanent political dominance is no longer possible. Typical! The NYT's John Harwood blames a persistently large number of swing voters and young, solution-oriented voters. I'd add the Feiler Faster Thesis, which means that any realignment-eroding adjustment process should now happen within one or two election cycles, rather than over decades. .. Karl Rove's dream of a Republican "realignment" turns out to have been more deluded than the neocon dream of a democratic Iraq. The latter didn't really kill the former, which was doomed all along. ... Of course, Rove is a student of history, and those who don't ignore history are condemned to think it will be repeated. ... .P.S.: Talk about "swing voters" seems a shorthand way of describing the result of a) ideological convergence b) declines in powerful interest groups (e.g.,unions) and c) fading historical memories. After the 2000 election, it appeared that these factors would guarantee us a future of painfully close elections--"50-50 Forever." That no longer resonates--not only do we seem about to have a non-50-50 election, but even formerly stable mass institutions like stock markets are routinely experiencing wild swings. Still, in politics at least the swings are now likely to swing back quickly. (And I still don't quite see why, over time, the swings wouldn't also become less wild. But they probably said that about stock markets too). ... 9:40 P.M.
___________________________
Now, about those guns you are clinging to ... : Obama on his absurdly overcelebrated race speech:
My gut was telling me that this was a teachable moment and that if I tried to do the usual political damage control instead of talking to the American people like an adult—like they were adults and could understand the complexities of race that I would be not only doing damage to the campaign but missing an important opportunity for leadership.
There are good reasons to have high expectations for an Obama presidency, but the possibility of more "teachable moments" isn't one of them. Is the presidency an adult education class? The whole concept of seeing voters as needing "teaching"--as opposed to persuading, or even selling-- seems more than a bit condescending. [He was just sucking up to Joe Klein--ed Good point.] 2:47 A.M.
___________________________.
Andrew Gumbel's Nation take on Republican "vote suppression" is too level-headed for most of my Westside L.A. neighbors--he swipes at "hardworking but underqualified Internet campaigners" who "were breathlessly denouncing nonexistent political plots cooked up by the Republicans and the makers of touch-screen voting machines." Gumbel's conclusion is that "the wheels started coming off" the GOP effort this year. And
even the most insidious vote suppression technique makes just a marginal difference--one half-percentage point here, another there--and comes seriously into play only in a close race. Such tactics can't prevent an Obama landslide, if that is what we are about to see, or overturn a two- to three-point victory in any given state.
P.S.: I still don't see what's so terrible about the practice of "caging," which, according to Gumbel, is when a party sends out "out nonforwardable mail" and "uses returned envelopes to question the eligibility of the addressees." Presumably the evidence provided by the envelopes can be rebutted, and the Democrats could do the same in Republican districts. The adversarial system at work! ... On the other hand, I still worry, along with the "underqualified Internet campaigners," about touch-screen voting machines. They seem to add little but ineradicable distrust to the electoral process. ..
P.P.S.: Gumbel predicts a voting machine shortage in Virginia. ... .2:27 A.M.
___________________________
Leftish bloggers worry about what they'll do if Obama ... wins. 2:26 A.M.
____________________________
"Bill the Union Boss" anti card-check ad. ... Mike Murphy's original Johnny Sack ads explained the issue more effectively. .... 2:25 A.M.
___________________________
-
sponsorship
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Everybody's Pitching In! (5): Family Guy is doing its part! With "provocative concepts and biting humor"! ... 1:15 P.M.
___________________________.
Leon Wiesletier, in the course of endorsing Obama in The New Republic
I must say that the Ayers affair rankles me, because I would not shake the man's dirty hand; and the fact that Obama was eight years old at the time of the Weather Underground is no more pertinent to his moral and historical awareness than the fact that he was six years old at the time of the King assassination.
Too off-message for Mr. Doubt. Three Atlantic interns have been assigned to investigate. ... But Sullivan is right about this extremely effective video. 1:06 P.M.
___________________________
Everybody's Pitching In! (4): The Simpsons is doing its part! ... 1:25 A.M.
___________________________
Bob Kerrey is not doing his part!
If this thing was running the other way, if Obama was taking the public money and McCain had opted out and raised $150 million in September, do you think The New York Times would have an editorial against it?
1:21 A.M.
___________________________
Everybody's Pitching In! (3): Men's Health is doing its part! ... 12:53 A.M.
___________________________.
In 2005, Californians passed 75 percent of bond measures, according to L.A. Weekly's Jill Stewart, who thinks they might rebel this year. Especially if they read the fine print. ... 12:42 A.M,
___________________________
Everybody's Pitching In! (2): Daniel Craig is doing his part! ... 12:07 A.M.
___________________________
Friday, October 24, 2008
Patterico's blog has been hijacked. I think they'll soon learn that they hijacked the wrong man! .. Here's his new URL. .... 11:53 P.M.
___________________________
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Everybody's Pitching In! I got home to find a staccato message on my phone machine from a Republican friend:
OK. So depressed about this election that I had to go to Baskin-Robbins and just buy a pint of ice cream and some caramel cones for [my son].
And of course, of course, I get there trying to drown my sorrows, and the flavor of the month is
"Whirl of Change."
"Whirl of Change" with a little Democratic donkey sign.
It's like peanut nougat ice cream with chunks of chocolate enrobed in more chocolate.
And I think it's also some kind of horrific multiracial metaphor.
But anyway so "Whirl of Change." Flavor of the month at Baskin Robbins.
I can't even listen to NPR. I get two NPR's and I switched the channel to the other NPR which usually isn't political and they were talking about the Davenport Zither Society and it was great. Fantastic.
I listened to that for like twenty minutes.
Baskin-Robbins is doing its part! ...
Background: Here. ... 12:52 P..M.
___________________________
I never understand poll results like this: "[L]ess than a third of voters" in three swing states said the Ayers and ACORN issues "would affect their votes." This is interpreted by TIME, and others, as a sign that McCain's Ayers and ACORN attacks aren't working. But if the attacks really did move a bit "less than a third"--27% or 30%--of voters into the McCain column, they'd be fantastically effective. ... Obviously, the attacks haven't done that. Most of the 27%-30% of affected voters were probably McCain voters anyway. But the poll doesn't tell us how many weren't. If even a third of that 27% were undecided voters, that could have a huge impact in a close race. Nor does the poll tell us how much these voters votes are being affected, or even in which direction the "affect" cuts. (Maybe the attacks produced sympathy for Obama.) All this is assuming voters are being improbably, brutally self aware and honest about what's affecting them. .... To be sure: I don't think the Ayers and ACORN attacks should be especially effective. I doubt they are especially effective. But poll numbers like this don't tell us one way or another. They're manufactured news designed to give the impression that lines of attack the MSM doesn't want to work aren't in fact working. ..1:13 A.M.
___________________________.
Is it just my weakness for off-message Dems, or is Kirsten Powers continuing her bizzare hot streak with this column (on Biden's undercovered gaffes)? She's becoming the shikse Krauthammer! ... 12:44 A.M.
___________________________
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Ride My See-Saw: I am encouraged to learn that the See-Saw or Hedge Effect, first suggested to me by emailer M., may have non-trivial grounding in professional polling analysis. .... To recap: M suggested that voters (especially white, swing voters) who don't vote for Obama may feel guilty about it and compensate by voting for Democrats in downballot races (Senate and Congress). But the converse of this theory is equally interesting--voters who do pick Obama, may compensate or hedge for what they feel is a bold, guilt-expiating risk by picking Republicans downballot. In this theory, Obama and downballot Dems are on a see-saw: The better Obama does, the worse the downballot Dems do, and vice versa. ... The technical term for these voters, I've learned, is vertical ticket splitters. They normally constitute a small ("maybe 8-10%") but important part of the electorate. M's point would be that this year their numbers are augmented--more people will be vertical ticket splitters because of the presence of Obama, who is not only an African American candidate--whom you might feel guilty about not picking--but a relatively unknown candidate whom you might want to hedge against, especially if you voted for him to avoid feeling guilty about not picking him (and then felt guilty about that).** ... The conventional, expected realization of the See-saw Theory would see an underperforming Obama squeak through a victory while downballot Dems roll up huge, realigning margins in Congress. But the SeeSaw could swing the other way as well. ... Indeed, the See-Saw Theory is mighty convenient for those of us who want Obama to win but fear a big Dem Senate majority (which might quickly enact "card check" and other misguided leftish reforms). It means we can root for an Obama blowout while simultaneously and realistically hoping for a non-overwhelming Democratic congressional margin. ... Go Obama! Go guilt-ridden vertical ticket splitters! ...
**--Note that a significant portion of these ticket splitters won't necessarily be consciously attempting to produce a divided government. They just feel guilty! Or insecure. ...1:21 P.M.
___________________________
My neighbors here in beautiful, rich West L.A. are busy setting up phone banks to call into neighboring swing state Nevada. I'm not sure that will help! The "smooth, half-price margaritas" could prove especially counterproductive. ... 2:22 A.M.
___________________________
Did David Geffen leave Dreamworks so he could buy the Los Angeles Times? Just asking! ... Maybe a better question would be: Is there a price at which Geffen couldn't resist buying the LAT? ... 12:47 A.M.
____________________________
Psst! It's Only Zogby--but while Zogby's national telephone tracking poll shows Obama opening up an 8 point lead, his online state by state polls are not following suit. They have McCain moving ahead in Nevada 51.5% to 44%, behind in Colorado by only three-tenths of a percent, close in Virginia, New Hampshire, and Florida. I assume this is more a commentary on the accuracy of online polls than on the state of the race. Interesting either way! ... [Thanks to reader A.] 12:31 A.M.
___________________________
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Mr. Gravitas: What was troubling about Biden's loin-girding gaffe, as Ace of Spades notes, wasn't the idea that Obama would be tested. It was the notion that we shouldn't worry because he has Joe Biden as his backup! ("I've forgotten more about foreign policy than most of my colleagues know.") ... And here I was giving Biden a pass for his "I think I probably have a much higher IQ than you do" resume-inflating, campaign-ending 1988 embarrassment. ... P.S.: It's Obama's fault. Obama picked him. It was a hack choice with known dangers, which are even now being realized. ... 1:25 P.M.
___________________________
Recommended: Tim Noah's 2001 piece on William Ayers' memoir Fugitive Days. A searing and timely review! Noah certainly seems like another pro-Obama Democrat who wouldn't have served on a board with Ayers. He describes Ayers as "self indulgent and morally clueless" and generally thinks we should treat the ex-Weatherman as a pathetic joke. ... Is Noah really 100% comfortable with a Democratic candidate who didn't? ... Backfill: Turns out Noah addressed this question earlier this year, providing some useful background (especially a link to this Ben Smith piece). You can decide for yourself whether Noah confronts the issue or punts with a joke about a game in which anyone can be connected to anyone else! I still think it's creepy the way Ayers and Dohrn are accepted in Chicago, and Obama's acceptance is part of that creepiness. I also think that if Obama wasn't running for President Noah would admit this. ... P.S.: What is it with Chicago? Is it Australia? Do they have to take anybody they can get there? I always thought L.A. was Australia.. ... 2:54 A.M.
___________________________
Patterico embarrasses the L.A. Times yet again. ... 2:12 A.M.
___________________________
Monday, October 20, 2008
At Swampland, Joe Klein has formally entered full Pro-Obama BS Mode.** I'll get there too--I promise. But not for days! ... Meanwhile, the normally level-headed Mike Murphy writes:
As a great McCain admirer, I am sad to say it, but the truth is the video of Powell's endorsement will boil across You Tube and do great damage in these closing days of the campaign.
"Boil across You Tube"? It's not even boiling across HuffPo. It's not, you know, compelling viewing. Maybe if you put some cats in it. .... My guess isn't that the Powell endorsement will fade quickly. My guess is it's already faded. ...
**--I look forward to Klein's return to normalcy after November 4. A Klein make-up-with-McCain post--blaming the shameful besmirching of McCain's honor on Steve Schmidt--should appear sometime around November 10. Unless McCain writes it first. Or, you know, wins.... 11:57 A.M.
___________________________
Why was I undecided at this point in 2000? It seems crazy to me in retrospect, given George W. Bush's performance. At cocktail parties recently, I've been unable to explain why. .. Well, here's my explanation at the time. It turns out I was worried about the combination of a Dem Congress and a Dem president. That was egregiously wrong ... or eerily prescient! (See next item). ... 12:08 A.M.
___________________________
Sunday, October 19, 2008
In an hour long interview with Charlie Rose last week (as accurately summarized in The Hill)
[Nancy] Pelosi dodged a question about whether Democrats would be able to bring about universal healthcare. Pelosi instead cited electronic recordkeeping as a preliminary step.
So we don't get health care but we do get card check? And immigration semi-amnesty? Is there a market where I can bet on Republicans in the 2010 midterms? ... Of course, maybe Pelosi is hiding the ball and really plans an ambitious health care agenda. But then what else is she hiding the ball on? ... P.S.: Note that Pelosi adopts the new, Luntz-style tough-sounding language on immigration:
“I’m just saying register so that we know who you are,” said Pelosi, who added that for those who are not willing to register: “You got to go back.”
Register or go back! Of course, if you are an illegal immigrant and you register and nothing happens--i.e. you get to stay--then you've in effect been granted a form of legalization or amnesty. ... This reminds me of the stage in the welfare reform debate when defenders of the old AFDC dole began to adopt the language of its critics without the substance--demanding "work" programs that really only mandated registering for work that was never actually required. Of course, they managed to sustain a wildly unpopular welfare program for several decades using this con. ... 8:22 P.M.
___________________________
The Power of the Preexisting Story Line: On Meet the Press, Chuck Todd unveiled NBC's latest polling results in three states--relatively, maybe even shockingly, good news for McCain, it seemed to me. McCain's ahead in Ohio by a point (a week ago the polls on RCP had him down five). Yikes. He's ahead in West Virgina by six--despite Obama's well-publicized moves to contest the state. Yet on the Meet panel, only Joe Scarborough seemed to react to acknowledge the cautionary news for Obama contained in these polls. Everyone else seemed to hew to the anticipated story line--how Powelll gives a boost to Obama, where the McCain campaign went wrong, etc. ... Hello? ... In order to preserve the Obama-on-the-march theme, poor Chuck Todd is reduced to arguing:
Obama is closer in West Virginia than McCain is in Wisconsin. That sort of tells the story of how this map has shifted, Tom.
If Obama loses in the Electoral College I'm sure it will comfort him to know he lost the states he lost by less than he won the states he won. ... P.S.: I know Obama doesn't need either Ohio or West Virginia to win. Still. ... If Obama's behind in Ohio just when the economy may be about to not dominate the news for two weeks, that can't be a good sign. If he's not ahead now, when will he be? ... P.P.S.: Mark Halperin calls the Powell endorsement "crushing news" for McCain. I dunno. If you were McCain, would you rather have Powell stay neutral or be up a point in Ohio? I think I'd take Ohio. ... 8:08 P.M.
____________________________
-
sponsorship
If (like me) you want to feel better about Barack Obama, try reading conservative Bradford Berenson's Frontline comments on Obama's performance at the Harvard Law Review. Excerpt:
I think Barack took 10 times as much grief from those on the left on the Review as from those of us on the right. And the reason was, I think there was an expectation among those editors on the left that he would affirmatively use the modest powers of his position to advance the cause, whatever that was. They thought, you know, finally there's an African American president of the Harvard Law Review; it's our turn, and he should aggressively use this position, and his authority and his bully pulpit to advance the political or philosophical causes that we all believe in.
And Barack was reluctant to do that. It's not that he was out of sympathy with their views, but his first and foremost goal, it always seemed to me, was to put out a first-rate publication. ... [snip]
It confirmed the hope that I and others had had at the time of the election that he would basically be an honest broker, that he would not let ideology or politics blind him to the enduring institutional interests of the Review. It told me that he valued the success of his own presidency of the Review above scoring political points of currying favor with his political supporters.
12:23 A.M.
___________________________
Friday, October 17, 2008
The Last Stunt is Always to Drop All the Stunts: Hmm. If, as Mike Murphy argues, 1) McCain's negative campaigning hurt him, and 2) his brief moments of non-negativity before the debate were helping him--something Gallup seems to support--but if 3) his renewed and MSM-amplified negativity during the debate turns out to have hurt him again, is there time left before the election for McCain to flip back again and 4) dramatically drop the attacks and make a direct, affirmative case for his presidency? The Feiler Faster Thesis says "yes," as it usually does. There are two whole weeks to go! ... But what does McCain do with the second week? ... P.S.: Republican incumbent Norm Coleman pulled this very stunt in Minnesota. Is it working for him? Quinnipiac has him only 2 points down. ... 4:15 A.M.
___________________________
Mark Krikorian, who knows as much about immigration politics as anyone, sticks by his conclusion that McCain, not Obama, would be "more likely to get an amnesty through Congress." His reasoning is similar to that of Democratic Rep. Artur Davis: Without a Republican in the White House actively promoting legalization, Republicans in Congress will be free to coalesce in opposition to any Obama legalization push. ... You also have to wonder: If even John McCain's lifelong (and only temporarily suspended) campaign for legalization doesn't get him much support among Hispanics--who currently seem to prefer Obama 2-to-1--will Republicans in general finally give up on the cynical Rovian dream of using immigration liberalization to win over that growing ethnic group? ... 3:23 A.M.
______________________________
Thursday, October 16, 2008
I forgot to ask Bob Wright if he'd serve on a board with William Ayers. ... I think I know what his answer would be regarding Luis Posada and Eduardo Arocena.. ...P.S.: Wright calls Sarah Palin's "palling around with terrorists" charge against Obama
one of the most despicable acts in the history of American campaign politics.
and even issues a challenge to come up with something more despicable. ... Bloggingheads commenters rise to the occasion. ... Update: Maguire offers some useful sober skepticism on Obama's "palling" defense. ... 11:52 P.M.
___________________________
USA Today editorializes against "card check." The more attention this issue gets, the less chance it has of passing, you'd think. It's hard to publicly defend getting rid of the secret ballot. ... I'd like to see Obama try it. (Since he's for "card check," shouldn't he be asked to explain his position?) ... P.S.: No wonder Democrats would want to rush "card check" through, in the early days of his presidency, before too many people notice--and when press reports are likely to be buried under a crush of other news. ... 5:10 P.M.
___________________________
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Final Debate: Before I get spun: 1) McCain did himself some good in this zero-sum game because in the first half of the debate he seemed sunny, yet had Obama on the defensive; 2) But not enough good; 3) Specifically, McCain failed to drive home the risk of placing so much power and trust in a relative unknown. Why couldn't he say, "I know I'm behind by a few points. But do you really know what you're getting with Sen. Obama?" Everything else in this campaign has been so crudely explicit--with talk by Obama of a "pivot" and appeals, not to "the people" but to "Joe Sixpack" and "the middle class." You'd think McCain could just come out and say, "Message: Buyer's Remorse!" ... 4) Obama's answer on the have-you-ever-bucked-your-party question was strong. His answer on Ayers was weak, all the weaker because he seemed to think it was strong; ... 5) "Senator Government." McCain's best line was an accidental slip. 6) Also liked "Bresh of Freath Air." So true! ... 6) Bob Schieffer made McCain look young and vigorous. 7). But you had to love the way that sly old Schieffer snuck in a few unexpected questions to throw the candidates off and reveal their true characters! ... Oh wait, He didn't do any of that! Instead he made utterly predictable stabs at vague, CW-approved topics, as if he was trying to out-bore Brokaw. He succeeded. ... He made Jim Lehrer look like Jim Cramer! ... Is this the end of the MSM Dinosaur Moderator? ...Next time: Chris Buckley and Glenn Loury! ... 8) Most telling passage:. Two times, if I remember right, McCain rattled off long lists of occasions when he had gone against his party, and each time he left off "immigration," his most salient anti-GOP heresy. (He brifely mentioned it later in a more anodyne context.) Once Obama had an opening to back up his charge that McCain was an unreliable champion of "comprehensive immigration reform." He didn't take it. This suggests that both candidates recognize that pushing "comprehensive immigration reform"--i.e. legaliztion--is a loser with the general electorate. Or it's at least very risky. Both would confine it to targeted appeals to Latinos on Spanish language radio and TV, which most voters never hear about. No Hispandering in public! .... Don't you agree, Tamar? .. 9) A crude translation of McCain's initial salvo on the economy: The problem is that Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac tried, by buying up mortgages, to encourage home ownership in the face of economic reality. So we need a new Fannie Mae to buy up mortgages and encourage home ownership in the face of economic reality! ...10) McCain constantly calls for "transparency." Is that a word voters understand, or is it Beltway code? ... 11) Obama's praise of the new DC school chancellor is certainly a coded appeal--an appeal to people like me. Chancellor Rhee is not a teachers' union favorite. ... 12) How many parents of autistic kids could there be? ... 13) If polling produces a "Bradley Effect," in which ordinary citizens will say whatever they think is PC in front of a lone pollster, won't CNN-style "dial groups," in which voters record their reactions in front of a massive TV audience, produce a Super-Bradley Effect? ... 14) McCain on his health plan:
Now, 95 percent of the people in America will receive more money under my plan because they will receive not only their present benefits, which may be taxed, which will be taxed, but then you add $5,000 onto it, except for those people who have the gold-plated Cadillac insurance policies that have to do with cosmetic surgery and transplants and all of those kinds of things
So in John McCain's America you don't get life-saving transplants? Sounds more like Great Britain. ... One reason I tend to favor government-provided health insurance is that I know that in the U.S. the political pressure will always be to pay for expensive, complicated medical treatements, and I don't mind if 40% of our GDP goes to complicated medical treatments. ... 15) Obama used the word "invest"--as in "invest in the American people"--quite a bit. This is a liberal cliche that sets my teeth on edge, but I don't know if that's true of swing voters. On the other hand, "spread the wealth around" could have widespread appeal! (McCain thought it obviously could mean only static, pie-slicing redistribution, but as a slogan it might also mean something like "more generalized growth," no? Update: In fact, that seems to have been the way Obama used the phrase. He said, "My attitude is that if the economy's good for folks from the bottom up, it's gonna be good for everybody. I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody.") ... 6:50 P.M./updated 9:15 P.M.
___________________________
Obama's Fast Labor Payoff: kf hears from a trustworthy non-Republican source (with access to actual insider information) that the Dems are getting set to pass "card check" legislation fast next year, right out of the box, assuming Obama wins and the Democrats get their expected big Senate majority. The legislation--which would eliminate the secret ballot in union organizing elections, allowing union organizers to gather signed cards person-to-person--is cheap, in budgetary terms. And it's very, very important to organized labor. ...Obama's political history suggests he's not a "fight the power" kind of guy. He's an "accommodate the power" kind of guy. It's highly plausible that he'd be willing to pay off this debt to Big Labor up front if they push him hard enough. ... Since I think "card check" legislation is a potential near-disaster economically (unions are engines of adversarial bureaucracy and the mainspring of the wage-price spiral) and procedurally (the secret ballot certainly seems like a key way to avoid intimidation) this is not good news. ... P.S.: Would it be a good move for Obama? Bill Clinton got into trouble, right after he took office, when in the middle of a troubled economic situation his first priority seemed to be gays-in-the-military. Obama likewise risks having it look like his first priority isn't helping the average citizen but helping a key Democratic interest group. ... In Clinton's case,, that damaging first impression was maybe unfair (the gays issue just happened fo flare up). In Obama's case it won't be. ...[Thought you were pro-Obama--ed Yes. But I am, as they say, concerned! Not scheduled to enter full pro-Obama BS mode for at least two more weeks.] ... 4:58 P.M.
___________________________
Now it can be told: Former LAT employee Tim Cavanaugh on the paper's Edwards coverage:
The L.A. Times desperately wanted to avoid this damaging story, dressed up its desires in media-diligence drag (we were told not to comment until the paper's reporters were through looking into the matter), and as a result was beaten and humiliated in its own backyard.
They even somehow got blogger Andrew Malcolm to claim he was happy to be gagged. ... .12:34 A.M.
___________________________
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Next stunt, please (cont.)! Another obvious possible McCain stunt: Go back on Letterman. Apologize. Self-deprecate. Hug. Big ratings. .. .10:52 P.M.
___________________________
It's hard to stop a gravy train:
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the troubled mortgage giants that were recently taken over by the government, are expected to continue donating to charity, the Federal Housing Finance Agency has assured nonprofit groups in the Washington metropolitan area.
Matt Cooper and Michael Kinsley have failed. ... [via NewsAlert ] 8:29 P.M.
_______________________________
Immigration causes global warming! ... Well, in that case ....7:21 P.M.
___________________________
The rich and powerful Getty Museum's idea of "the political fray": a debate between theatrical left-wing artist Robbie Conal and theatrical left-wing columnist Dan Savage! ... And they say the art community is a bunch of theatrical left-wingers talking to each other. ... Take it away, Andrew Breitbart. ...P.S.: Well, they could always discuss Savage's muscular foreign policy vision! ... 7:21 P.M.
___________________________
The Surprise October Surprise: The "October Surprise" that might help McCain wouldn't be a new bin Laden tape, or an Al Qaeda attack, but rather a medium-sized setback in Iraq, no? One of McCain's problems is that voters aren't paying much attention to Iraq--because it looks from our distant vantage point like the war is finally on a glide path to an honorable U.S. drawdown of troops. How much damage could Obama do? But if suddenly the near-term outcome in Iraq seems to be in doubt, voters could decide that McCain has shown better judgment on recent strategy in the war. ... Of course, if the U.S. Iraq project suffers a huge setback, McCain's support for the "surge" would look distinctly less prescient. Hence, "medium-sized." ... 3:05 A.M.
___________________________
-
sponsorship
Kausfiles has been moved to Slate's new blogging software, because ... well, I'm sure there is a highly persuasive rationale. ... "Functionality!" That's it. And to be honest our old blogging software, a Microsoft legacy modestly named "Gutenberg," was getting awfully rickety. We're still working on the appearance and operation of the new format. Slate's Vivian Selbo, who designed the original 1999 kausfiles.com site, is making it all look good. But inevitably the transition involves attempting to fit traditional time-tested kf elements into the Procrustean bed ... I mean, versatile, cost-efficient template of third-party blogging software. Feedback appreciated.
___________________________
-
sponsorship
Psst, Republicans! The big problem with ACORN isn't the squirrelly voter registration efforts you are making such a fuss about. It is their efforts to water down or undermine work-based welfare reform. You'd think that would trouble swing voters more too. ... 2:25 A.M.
___________________________
Friday, October 10, 2008
And do you maybe have some change in your pocket? ... I hear jingling! I just made a deposit at my bank. For the first time ever, the teller asked me if I maybe also wanted to pay down some of the (relatively small) balance in my check-protection line of credit. Payments are automatically deducted from my account anyway, so they were asking for a voluntary extra payment. Just to help me, of course. ... I guess they've figured out how to avoid sowing panic-triggering doubts among their customers! ... 3:21 P.M.
___________________________
What's McCain's Next Stunt? Let the speculation begin. Global Dashboard has one not-implausible scenario. ... Feiler Faster Stunting: I say there isn't time for one more stunt. There's time for two! ... 10:42 A.M.
___________________________
-
sponsorship
What does a tasered possum sound like? Harry Shearer has the answer. ... P.S.: Yes, he does Mr. Burns too. ... 2:43 A.M.
___________________________
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
George McGovern makes an ad on "card check":
I've always been a champion of labor unions, but I fear that today's union leaders are turning their backs on democratic workplace elections. I've listened to all their arguments and reviewed the facts on both sides. Quite simply, this proposed law cannot be justified.
Can I vote for him? ... Done it before! [via Insta] 12:58 A.M.
___________________________
Mark Halperin almost nails Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs on the Ayers issue--"It is the case that Barack Obama at least implicitly seems to be saying 'It's Ok to have professional associations with someone who was a terrorist and by some measures is an unrepentant terrorist'"--but Halperin doesn't know to stop talking. As a result, it sounds like an argument as opposed to a question followed by fumfawing or evasion. ... P.S.: Note Gibbs' pissed-off close. .. 12:31 A.M.
__________________________
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
McCain/Obama Debate #2: Before I get spun: A dull debate in a dead room. Each stole the other's theme: Obama called for service to country, McCain for a "cool hand on the tiller" even as he seemed like a hyperactive hand himself. A tie helps Obama, and this probably wasn't even a tie. ... 1) Obama's great weakness is that he's an unknown with an unusual (i.e. strange) background. By painting him as a big-spending liberal, McCain oddly made Obama seem less strange, and more acceptable. Voters are used to dealing with big spending liberals--and they also may think that the there's not enough money for that much big spending anymore anyway. 2) Speaking of spending, McCain rails against Obama's "$860 billion" in proposed "new" spending, yet McCain wants the government to buy up all the bad mortgages in the country, give all homeowners new purchase prices and protect them from their ill-advised decisions? Sounds very expensive. Update: I was just on Tavis Smiley's TV show with Rep. Maxine Waters, who said the money to do what McCain wants to do is already in the bailout bill. But it sure sounded to me like McCain was proposing a big new initiative. More: He thought he was. "Aides to McCain told reporters" it will cost $300 billion. Waters' point may be that the existing bailout bill already authorizes such purchases; ... 3) "That one." Heh. Not racist--seemed to me like an attempt by McCain to avoid being too confrontational (by saying Obama's name) that wound up seeming more hostile than saying Obama's name would have been. ... 4) Obama still refers to economically pressured Americans as "you" rather than "we." He says, "Maybe you don't go out to dinner as much. Maybe you put off buying a new car." That's all? Is Obama trying to make the economic hardship he's talking about sound minimal? ... 5) McCain was badly hurt by the camera angle--shooting him from above only made him look short and scuttling. ... 6) Worst format ever? Could be! Can't believe McCain wanted more of these things. ... 7) Was it awful because it was a fake town hall debate, as Maxine Waters and Slate's Jack Shafer contend? It certainly managed to keep the worst aspects of the town hall format--the phony empathy competition between the candidates as they either ignore questions or treat them as prompts for stock answers--while leaving out the worthwhile aspects--spontaneity and risk. In the process it reduced its Real Average Americans to props in the earnest empathon! 8) Brokaw didn't help by adding his own little bien pensant suggestions on top of the cherry-picked high-minded audience queries. At least when Brokaw moderated debates in 1988 he would harangue the candidates about "means-testing" Social Security, a substantive proposal. Now he wants only "a date certain to reform Social Security and Medicare within two years"--a bipartisanist gimmick ... 8) McCain has his own gimmick:
My friends, what we have to do with Medicare is have a commission, have the smartest people in America come together, come up with recommendations, and then, like the base-closing commission idea we had, then we should have Congress vote up or down.
Let's not let them fool with it anymore. There's too much special interests and too many lobbyists working there.
That's more or less what happened with the bailout bill, due to the rush of the crisis rather than any special procedural provision. I wonder if McCain is freshly enamored with the ability of the MSM to actually get Congress to approve the bailout in the teeth of public opposition? Maybe the Bailout Model now his template for top-down reform: a yes-no vote, with maximum establishment pressure focused, if only for an instant, on those selfish unbipartisan cowards who do what their constituents want instead of What Everyone Knows Must Be Done. And no pesky deal-breaking amendments. ... You just know McCain would like to go this route with "comprehensive immigration reform" too. ... 6:29 P.M./updated 8:42 P.M. link
___________________________
Monaco, gritty center of automotive innovation. ... 11:35 A.M.
___________________________
Monday, October 6, 2008
Rezko Alert! Federal prosecutors have moved to delay sentencing of former Obama fundraiser Tony Rezko, the Chicago Tribune reports. ... The obvious suspicion is that he's talking. Or at least talking about talking ... Update: Full Tribune story. ... Of course this will also have the effect of pushing Rezko's sentencing past the election--eliminating one potentially bad bit of publicity for Obama. .. And according to the Trib's sources, Rezko "has not yet made a firm deal." ... See also the timeline on the local NBC affiliate's blog, where Steve Rhodes writes: "[S]ubstantively, Obama's long and intimate relationship with Rezko is of far more import than the spectacle of Jeremiah Wright and the (mostly) nonsense of Bill Ayers. ... Obama's house deal with Rezko was indeed shady." ...
P.S.: Everybody seems to agree that the main target of the federal probe is sitting Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich. But that doesn't rule out the possibility that prosecutors might also extract something from Rezko about Obama. ...
P.P.S.: Barring some dramatic development, like an indictment, voters may find the accusation that Obama is really a Chicago political hack more comforting than troubling. Better than a strange Third World Madrassa Man!** We're used to dealing with Chicago political hacks.
** Previous anti-Obama meme, discredited but not necessarily forgotten. ... 5:08 P.M. link
___________________________
He's Lost Alter! New York's John Heilemann, as evidence of a media shift against McCain, offers this:
Jonathan Alter, Joe Klein, Richard Cohen, David Ignatius, Jacob Weisberg: all former McCain admirers now turned brutal critics. Equally if not more damaging, the shift has been just as pronounced, if less operatic, among straight-news reporters. Suddenly, McCain is no longer being portrayed as a straight-talking, truth-telling maverick but as a liar, a fraud, and an opportunist with acute anger-management issues.
I know Jon Alter. Jon Alter is a friend of mine. He's very good at what he does--I couldn't do it. He wrote an excellent book, has a lot to say. But he's not exactly someone you look to as a political weather vane. Alter is totally for Obama and has been since the beginning of the campaign. If Jon has "turned" brutally against McCain in the final weeks of the campaign that is as predictable as the Giants going into a prevent defense with a two touchdown lead and a minute to go.** ... But of course he hasn't "turned"--missing from Heilemann's piece is any evidence of Alter favoring McCain at any earlier point in the campaign, let alone evidence of Alter favoring McCain once he was the nominee running against Obama. The same goes, to a lesser extent, for his fellow Chicago Dem (and head of the Slate Group) Jacob Weisberg. Nor is it exactly surprising that Klein, Cohen and Ignatius would be on Obama's side in the end. ...
It's one thing to have pro-Democratic, pro-Obama media favoritism: That's just the way it is. Political reporters have opinions. Better blatant than latent.
It's another to have that very favoritism used as evidence that McCain is blowing it, losing his reputation for "integrity" and his "gold plated brand." ...
P.S.: It might seem as if the MSM reaction against McCain's shift to negativism has "driven the final nail into his coffin," as Heilemann suggests. The Feiler Faster Thesis says no--given the speed with which the country now processes information, there's plenty of time for several dramatic twists and turns, including lead changes. Obamaphiles (in the press and elsewhere) are deluding themselves, I think, if they think they can ride the economic crisis and the reaction against negativity to victory in a month. Plus Obama's not that far ahead.
**--I worked with Alter at Newsweek in the 1988 campaign. We were for Dukakis. ... 1:57 P.M. link
___________________________
Fear of 60: If there's a good chance that the Dems will achieve a theoretically filibuster-proof majority of 60 in the Senate, shouldn't that change the dynamic of the race? It certainly changes the nature of the prospective Obama presidency. It means he might come under intense pressure to do something big about health care. And it is a blazing arrow pointing in the direction of the Employee Free Choice Act, more commonly known as "card check," which would constitute a fairly fundamental revision of our basic economic laws in a direction designed to unionize a large chunk of the economy (at the cost of doing away with the secret ballot in union certification elections). ... Currently about 12.6% of all U.S. jobs are unionized, though that includes the union-heavy public sector. How much of the economy would be organized after the secret ballot is eliminated? At the Dem convention I heard figures ranging from about 15% to 25% (the latter estimate derided by some as extreme). ... .
Since I think a dramatic increase in unionization is not the way to help those on the bottom of the job market--it's more likely to introduce inefficiency and inflation, compared with the proven Clintonite remedy of achieving a low unemployment rate--the looming 60-Dem threshold evokes mixed feelings, if not actual dread. I think I'd rather have Obama win a big victory while the Dems struggle to a narrow win in Congress than what we're likely to get--namely the reverse. (It's a measure of Obama's troubling weaknesses that he's lagging so far behind the underlying Dem legislative wave.) ...
This morning some idealistic, well-scrubbed 10 year olds down the street were raising funds by selling "Obama Lemonade." Do they know it's really Card Check Lemonade?!...
Mickey's Assignment Desk: It would be good to have a seat by seat analysis of: a) Whether all 60 prospective Dems will actually side with labor to break a card-check filibuster--or whether some independent-minded Dems might defy union-enforced orthodoxy and join the McGovern wing of the party. b) Whether the unions even need 60 Dems to pass the card check bill. Maybe they could rely on liberal GOPs like Susan Collins, Arlen Specter, or Olympia Snowe to break a filibuster even if the Dems win only, say, 58 seats. [Update: Collins, at least, is anti-card check, I'm told.] ... 1:38 A.M. link
___________________________